To hike or not to hike? Here's what the banks predict for today's OCR decision…

To hike or not to hike? Here's what the banks predict for today's OCR decision | Ryan Bridge TODAY <!--mynz:youtube-chapters--> {"v":1,"chapters":[{"timeSeconds":0,"label":"Introduction to OCR Decision","summary":"The video begins by discussing the upcoming decision on the official cash rate (OCR). It highlights that if you have a mortgage, the key information you'll want to know is whether the OCR is going down."},{"timeSeconds":17,"label":"Mortgage Statistics in NZ","summary":"It is revealed that 35% of New Zealanders have a mortgage. The average mortgage amount is $607,000, and 135,000 New Zealanders have mortgages of $1 million or more."},{"timeSeconds":37,"label":"Expert Predictions on OCR","summary":"Ryan Bridge introduces Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ, and Nick Tuffley, Chief Economist at ASB. They are both in the camp that believes the OCR will be held steady today."},{"timeSeconds":57,"label":"Reframing the OCR Question","summary":"Sharon Zollner suggests reframing the question from 'will they hike?' to 'what is the appropriate level of the cash rate?'. She notes that the starting point matters, as current rates are below neutral."},{"timeSeconds":112,"label":"Economic Factors Influencing OCR","summary":"The discussion touches on the economy being 'reasonably hard' but notes that falling oil prices and increased confidence suggest the Reserve Bank may not need to hike rates. They are balancing risks of inflation being too high or too low."},{"timeSeconds":132,"label":"Lag Effect of OCR Hikes","summary":"Nick Tuffley explains that there's a 12-18 month lag effect from OCR hikes. He notes that while the Reserve Bank held rates last time, they might hike them again soon, possibly by 75 basis points."},{"timeSeconds":200,"label":"Market Expectations vs. Reality","summary":"Nick Tuffley elaborates that the market has priced in a certain level of rate hikes, but the recent drop in oil prices and improved confidence might mean the Reserve Bank can be more cautious. He suggests the market may have over-anticipated the extent of future rate hikes."},{"timeSeconds":300,"label":"Strategy and Market Reaction","summary":"Sharon Zollner explains that when the situation is ambiguous, strategy comes into play. She suggests that given the current economic climate, it's reasonable for the market to expect the OCR to be priced closer to neutral, with the Reserve Bank waiting to see further data."}]} <!--/mynz:youtube-chapters-->